CIS hot rolled coil producers remain absent from export markets, but some material is expected to be on offer shortly, as lead times shorten.

Mills remain in no hurry to offload material, as the CIS domestic market is recovering from Covid-19 industrial restrictions. This leaves little possibility of extra availability for export from full August books, Kallanish hears.

Ukrainian indicative offers to Turkey remain at $425-435/tonne cfr for small and large coils produced in late August, but well-stocked Turkish buyers continue to bide their time. The recent softening of iron ore and relative strength of scrap prices is keeping Turkish buyers on the fence, both in the HRC and slab segments.

Long lead times are yet again playing against CIS sellers for new sales, but keeping them comfortable for at least another two weeks, some traders estimate.

One Russian mill was also testing Turkey with similarly priced offers, but no sale was concluded. Another two Russian producers are not offering, one selling slowly in Europe, another having no allocations for August.

Sales to the Middle East and Africa are extremely slow, but some demand is arising, albeit very tentatively. Weakness in oil prices and weak economic growth are brewing more protectionism. Some regions are not expected to come back to the market for months, such as Egypt, where the sole local producer is already enjoying a fuller order book, according to local sources.

A major blow to exporters is Saudi Arabia's decision to hike its steel import duties. Although relatively small, these could hinder imports, especially at this time of recovery from Covid-19 stoppages and low oil prices. The decision could affect Ukrainian suppliers more than its Russian counterparts, as it has a stronger foothold in the segment in the region.

With China back to the export market and arbitrage jeopardised by rising freight rates and the return to high output and high stocks, sales to the country are unlikely in the near future, traders say.

The Vietnamese market is already showing signs of oversupply, reflecting on prices, which range from $435-450/t cfr for Indian/Chinese material, with shorter-than-Russian lead times. This leaves only one Russian supplier able to compete, with lower freight rates from Russian Far Eastern ports. Traders estimate Russian material may be booked at $425-430/t cfr Vietnam, but no firm offers were made at press time.