Despite severe anti-Covid-19 industrial restrictions still in place in the majority of CIS hot rolled coil export markets served by the Black and Baltic Sea ports, supplier mills finished last week's sales strongly. Having achieved an average monthly increase of around $20/tonne, some producers will not be back until the end of this week, indicating their June books are closed. Others meanwhile are inviting bids, Kallanish learns from the market.

Buying sentiment may have cooled down slightly in China by Friday, but this did not prevent more bookings during the week. A Ukrainian producer achieved $420/t cfr for a typically large consignment, netting back to around $390/t fob, the highest price achieved in Black Sea sales since the rebound started. Mills both in the CIS and Turkey expect demand in China will return and prices will continue to rise in current quarter.

In the meantime, southeast Asia is alive with returning demand, with prices rising up to $430/t cfr, $40/t up month-on-month. A major Russian Urals-based mill exported to Vietnam in the beginning of the rise, and sold large volumes at $390-395/t cfr, net back $375/t fob Vladivostok. This has enabled it to close its considerably vaster June production books and even tap into July output, sources say. 

Both China and Vietnam are also eyed by Turkish mills as an alternative export destination for some of their traditional European volumes for the next several months. This is while the safeguards investigation will be keeping some EU buyers at bay, sources suggest. At current prices and demand levels there, it is only mills' long lead times that are preventing more bookings there, traders say. Once buyers start booking late September/October arrivals, there is a chance of a competition forming between CIS and Turkish suppliers, they note.

CIS offers to Turkey were at $385-390/t cfr, but no deals were made last week, as similar-priced material was available from Europe with shorter lead times. Saudi Arabia is also likely to forego CIS material in its current round of buying, as shorter lead times are available from Europe, although at $415-420/t cfr, the price would be workable.

Meanwhile, an ex-Baltic supplier cut its offer volumes to Europe, and also increased prices. But its latest offers of cold rolled coil to Turkey at $430/t cfr were very competitive, trader say. The Turkish cold rolled coil market is lagging in recovery, as it is used largely in the construction sector, the worst-affected industry thus far.