The official announcement by the European Commission of the initiation of an anti-dumping investigation into Turkish HRC imports have added impetus to the health of the domestic steel industry in Turkey. Part of this is the importance of keeping export prices above costs. Most Turkish suppliers were rejecting tentative traders' bids at below $380/tonne fob last week, Kallanish hears.

A major European supplier's low-priced offers of HRC to Egypt have also raised several eyebrows. The mill was offering HRC to Egypt at levels below $400/t cfr. Turkish producers' sources meanwhile note how their own offers were never below $400/t cfr Egypt in the last three months despite struggles with demand in the EU and other destinations due to Covid-19 restrictions. 

Export indications remained at around $390-400/t fob for July produced HRC, but some June-produced material could still be made available "… if the price was right, around $410-415/t fob," one mill says. In the face of firm scrap and slab prices, mills appear to be increasingly reluctant to sacrifice their margins and future ability to work with its largest importer - EU - by reducing prices. And with slab imports only available at $340-350/t cfr, mills cannot go below $400/t without cutting into their margins.

The market continues to operate under emergency conditions with changes reshaping its landscape weekly or even daily. The fact that some Turkish mills are already well into July production books is a positive, another source says. He concludes that Turkish suppliers have a firm grounding in the EU through extensive trade connections fostered by the decades of mutually beneficial relationship, supported by a free trade agreement. The resulting duty is likely to be minimal, if any at all, he opines.